What Predicting U.S. Elections and Stock Returns Have in Common

Matus Mrazik, Investment Manager, systematic equities, Jupiter, and Jonathan Katz, Kay Sugahara Professor of Social Sciences and Statistics, Caltech find commonalities between two different fields.
24 July 2026 22 mins

At first glance, election forecasting and quantitative investing seem to have little to do with one another. One is about candidates, voters, districts, parties, and election cycles. The other is about companies, markets, signals, portfolios, and returns. The institutions are different. The participants are different. The language is different.

But underneath the surface, the statistical problem is surprisingly similar.

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