Mark Nash, fund manager of the Jupiter Strategic Absolute Bond fund, explains the merits of an ‘absolute return’ approach to fixed income, in an era of dramatically changed policymaking and an environment in which fundamentals are no longer enough.

Due to the errors of policymakers, the post-financial crisis era was marked by low growth and low inflation. The dominance of central banks in that environment proved very supportive for financial assets. In that falling yield and low volatility world, economic outcomes were poor as central bank liquidity flowed directly into financial assets.

 

Since the onset of the Covid pandemic, however, the policymaking landscape has dramatically changed. Fiscal spending is unlikely to disappear anytime soon as inequality and global warming issues are addressed. Central banks will remain supportive but will take more of a backseat, while ensuring that banking systems are in good health to support the recovery.

Better for the economy, worse for fixed income

This reflationary environment will see higher growth and higher inflation, with yields rising. In my view, a more ‘absolute return’ approach will be needed to achieve positive returns from fixed income. Funds with the ability to take short positions either outright or for relative value investments will therefore have an advantage, aided by the flexibility to invest across the fixed income universe to find returns.

Worst start to the year for bonds since 2009 (global agg. USD unhedged)

Worst start to the year for bonds since 2009 (global agg. USD unhedged)

Source: BBG

Fundamentals are no longer enough

Absolute return funds typically seek to achieve positive returns in all market environments. They have no benchmark and so should be measured by manager skill through their level of risk-adjusted returns. This incorporates the amount of return achieved relative to the amount of risk used to achieve it.

 

Their purpose is to manage the cycle for investors and to smooth returns as the cycle progresses, outperforming in a bear market, although they will often underperform in a bull market. Methods of downside protection are often incorporated to achieve this key goal. They tend to have high flexibility and make the most use of diversification, avoiding pure directional market plays to achieve a low correlation to the broader markets. They are often unconstrained and make full use of derivatives to achieve this.

 

Absolute return strategies typically use top-down fundamental research to identify the macro-economic environment to provide a framework for their core strategy. However, focusing solely on a fundamental approach to investing is not enough any longer to outperform in modern financial markets. Bottom-up macro analysis, a more technical approach involving the studying of individual market mechanics is becoming more common. Given the growth in the market’s size in the past decade, markets themselves can often become the story and be key drivers of the broader asset classes and potentially impact economic fundamentals directly. This has been critical to outperform in recent years.

Diverse sources of return

In absolute return bond (ARB) funds, the goal is to construct a portfolio that has appropriate characteristics in terms of its duration, yield curve, credit, country and currency exposure. The fund should utilise a full derivative overlay, and so can achieve positive returns in a rising yield environment. The process should look to achieve diversified returns across the fixed income and currency spectrum, and not rely on any one specific area of the market. The funds will come with varying degrees of liquidity and volatility. Investment time horizons will tend to be shorter as the strategy is continuously reinvented to fit the up-coming macro environment and achieve its positive return objectives.

 

In recent years the absolute return bond sector has suffered outflows as fixed income has been in a bull market and long-only funds have dominated. This was supported by the financial crisis as all economies were hit, damaging macro volatility and proved a difficult environment for ARB investors to find diversified returns.

Extreme policy action raises opportunities

More recently the sector has seen a revival as the low level of yields and credit spreads are seeing investors look elsewhere for return. Inflation fears have ignited concerns over fixed income markets as the cycle has turned higher. The extreme policy action has also raised opportunity as economies move at different speeds offering up diversified returns that ARB managers crave. A key issue for investors is, over this more difficult period for ARB funds, the number of viable funds has shrunk as investors closed funds, suffered underperformance or failed to stick to their true diversified ARB investment processes.

 

Our belief is that more traditional funds will struggle to make positive returns as the global economy recovers from the pandemic, monetary policy is tightened and as inflation is higher than in the last decade. We believe the ability to source returns from interest rates, spread and currency markets on both the long and short side puts ARB funds such as Jupiter Strategic Absolute Return Bond in a good position to outperform in this environment.

This is an updated version of an article first published in August 2021.

The value of active minds: independent thinking

 

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Investment risk – while the Fund aims to deliver above zero performance irrespective of market conditions, there can be no guarantee this aim will be achieved. Furthermore, the actual volatility of the Fund may be above or below the expected range, and may also exceed its maximum expected volatility. A capital loss of some or all of the amount invested may occur.

 

Emerging markets risk – less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries.

 

Credit risk – the issuer of a bond or a similar investment within the Fund may not pay income or repay capital to the Fund when due. Bonds which are rated below investment grade are considered to have a higher risk exposure with respect to meeting their payment obligations. 

 

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This document is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Market and exchange rate movements can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. 

 

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*In Hong Kong, investment professionals refer to Professional Investors as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong).and in Singapore, Institutional Investors as defined under Section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 101025

 

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