India is in the midst of a second wave of Covid-19 cases, which is currently making headlines around the world. The country, which has a population of 1.3bn, has seen over 17m Covid cases, and has reported over 200,000 deaths. Maharashtra, the state which contains Mumbai, seems to have led the way in this latest wave, having reported over 4m cases and over 30% of total deaths.1 It is a truly tragic situation and one that we think will take several months to resolve, although we have seen a reduction in new cases in Maharashtra in recent weeks which leads us to believe the second wave may have peaked in the state.

 

We note that there have been reports that the number of deaths and number of Covid cases are being under-reported. Our understanding is that the under-reporting of Covid cases is quite prevalent, as people are self-medicating at home without being tested, but that it is more difficult to mask the true number of deaths. In India, all adults are issued with biometric identification – part of the government’s drive for financial inclusion and social security – which means that while there could be delays in getting information, we think we will eventually get a full picture of what is happening. While there is some uncertainty in the numbers, we believe that India has the advantage of its young population and the fact that many elderly and vulnerable people have already had at least one dose of the vaccine.

 

At the moment the country is using regional lockdowns so that economic activity can continue in areas that are less affected by the virus. We think short-term growth will be impacted – recent estimates for GDP growth this financial year are in the 10-11% range2, lower than the 12.5% predicted by the IMF a few weeks ago. We think that there could be some further downside risk to these estimates, but expect that the latter half of the year will bring a strong economic bounce-back, similar to the ‘V-shaped’ recovery we saw after the country’s first wave of Covid back in 2020. We also think that the case for India’s long-term economic growth will not be impacted.

 

India’s government has already pledged to increase public sector spending on healthcare from just 1.2% of GDP currently, to 2.5% in the next 3 years.3 We see Covid accelerating the pre-existing trend of increased focus on health and wellbeing. In the Jupiter India strategy, we have significantly more exposure to the healthcare sector than the Indian stock market does4, ranging from domestic healthcare infrastructure, including hospitals and diagnostics, to pharmaceutical exports.

 

India is the world’s largest producer of vaccines, and vaccine production has gone into overdrive in recent weeks. India has recently allowed vaccine manufacturers to sell to both the government and private healthcare providers, which we think should improve the speed of the ramp-up and efficiency of vaccine rollout. The country is currently dispensing vaccines at a run rate of around 3m a day and has dispensed over 140m doses so far, second only to the US and China.5 At the current vaccine production schedule, without taking into account new production facilities announced over the last few weeks, we think that 400m people in India could be fully vaccinated by the end of August.6 There is a light at the end of the tunnel in that we think India will follow the path of the US and UK towards full vaccination in the next few months.

[1] Cumulative Cases – Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (jhu.edu) – as at 26.04.2021

[2] 10% – World Bank estimate, 1 April. 11% – ADB estimate, 28 April.

[3] Healthcare Industry in India, Indian Healthcare Sector, Services (ibef.org)

[4] As at 31.03.2021

[5] Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations – Statistics and Research – Our World in Data

[6] Data from Kotak Research, as at 28.04.2021

Risks

The fund invests in a single developing geographic area and there is a greater risk of volatility due to political and economic change, fees and expenses tend to be higher than in western markets. These markets are typically less liquid, with trading and settlement systems that are generally less reliable than in developed markets, which may result in large price movements or losses to the fund. The fund manager may use derivatives, which carries additional risks and may result in large fluctuations in the value of the fund. There is also a risk that counterparties to derivatives may become insolvent, which may cause losses to the fund. This fund invests mainly in shares and it is likely to experience fluctuations in price which are larger than funds that invest only in bonds and/or cash. The Key Investor Information Document, Supplementary Information Document and Scheme Particulars are available from Jupiter on request.

Important information

This document is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Market and exchange rate movements can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. Past performance is no guide to the future. The views expressed are those of the Fund Manager at the time of writing, are not necessarily those of Jupiter as a whole and may be subject to change. This is particularly true during periods of rapidly changing market circumstances. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of any information provided but no assurances or warranties are given. Company examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. This document contains information based on the MSCI India Index. Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s express written consent. Jupiter Unit Trust Managers Limited (JUTM) and Jupiter Asset Management Limited (JAM) are both authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and their registered address is The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ, United Kingdom. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of JUTM and/or JAM.