The difficulty in assessing the impact of a Trump win is that it is unclear what he will actually do in office.
The short term impact is likely negative for shares as the level of uncertainty increases. However, based on the broad thrust of his comments so far he is likely to enact stimulus measures – for example a large programme of infrastructure spending – that could materially accelerate the economy. While the market will fret over the uncertainty, the reality is that there is a material separation of powers in US politics where substantive change to law requires approval of both houses of congress and in my view there are sufficient moderate Republicans to join their Democrat Congressional colleagues in halting some of the more wild-eyed initiatives that might come out of the new President.
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